02 High-Risk Situations

⚠️ When a Cold Is More Than a Cold

Certain health conditions put you at real risk for serious complications — here's what to know before you get sick

Matt Bezzant, MD · April 1, 2026 · 6 min read

For most healthy adults, a cold is a miserable week that resolves on its own. But for people with certain underlying conditions, the same virus can trigger complications that are genuinely serious. If you or someone you care for falls into one of these groups, knowing the risks ahead of time — and knowing what to watch for — is the most useful thing I can offer.

Why some people are more vulnerable

The common cold becomes dangerous not because the virus itself is more aggressive, but because of how the body responds to it. In people with lung disease, the inflammatory response that a cold triggers can tip an already-stressed airway into crisis. In people with weakened immune systems, the infection that a healthy person clears in a week can spread into the lungs before the body gets it under control. In older adults, a less responsive immune system means the infection takes longer to contain and can cause more collateral damage.

Understanding which category applies to you — and what signals to watch for — is the difference between catching a complication early and ending up in the emergency department.

The high-risk groups

🫁
Asthma

The airways of people with asthma are chronically inflamed and hyperreactive — they respond to triggers with exaggerated narrowing (bronchoconstriction) that can make breathing difficult. Cold viruses are among the most potent triggers there are.

🔍 The Evidence

Viral respiratory infections are responsible for approximately 80% of asthma attacks in adults. The risk isn't that people with asthma get colds more often — it's that when they do, the consequences can be significantly more severe.

Watch for
  • Increased use of your rescue inhaler beyond your usual baseline
  • Wheezing or chest tightness that doesn't respond to a rescue inhaler within 15–20 minutes
  • Waking at night due to breathing difficulty
  • Peak flow readings dropping below your personal best
My Recommendation
Keep your rescue inhaler accessible from day one of a cold. If you use a peak flow meter, start tracking early. Contact your provider sooner rather than later if your breathing changes — asthma exacerbations are far easier to manage when caught early.
💨
COPD (Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease)

COPD is a condition in which the airways and air sacs of the lungs are permanently damaged — most often from long-term smoking — leaving patients with chronically reduced lung function (reduced FEV1 and airflow obstruction). People with COPD don't get colds more often than anyone else, but when they do, the consequences can be disproportionately severe. Each significant exacerbation is associated with a measurable, permanent step-down in lung function.

Watch for
  • Breathlessness noticeably worse than your usual baseline
  • Mucus changing from clear or white to yellow or green, with increased volume
  • Increased use of rescue medications beyond your normal pattern
  • Difficulty completing sentences or normal daily activities due to breathlessness
🔍 The Evidence — Prednisone for Exacerbations

This is the one situation in this series where I recommend a prescription medication. A Cochrane review found that 5-day courses of prednisone (40 mg daily) are as effective as 10–14 day courses for treatment failure, relapse, and lung function recovery — with fewer side effects. Emerging data adds nuance: patients with blood eosinophil counts ≥2% show greater improvement with corticosteroids, while those with lower counts may not benefit and could have better outcomes without them.

⚠ Important caveat on steroids
Even short bursts of corticosteroids carry real risks — increased rates of pneumonia, sepsis, and in some populations, death. Steroids for COPD exacerbations should be reserved for significant exacerbations and used in partnership with your provider, not taken prophylactically.
🔍 The Evidence — Azithromycin for Prevention

The strongest evidence for azithromycin in COPD is for preventing exacerbations in high-risk patients, not treating acute illness. The landmark Albert trial (n=1,142) showed daily azithromycin for 1 year reduced exacerbation rates from 1.83 to 1.48 per patient-year (RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.72–0.95) and extended the median time to first exacerbation from 174 to 266 days. If you're having frequent exacerbations, this is worth a specific conversation with your provider.

My Recommendation
If you have COPD and develop a significant exacerbation, contact your provider early — don't wait until you're in crisis. A 5-day course of prednisone has strong evidence for shortening recovery and reducing relapse. If you're having frequent exacerbations, ask your provider whether preventive azithromycin is appropriate for you.
🛡️
Weakened immune system

If you're undergoing chemotherapy, taking immunosuppressive medications (such as prednisone, methotrexate, biologics, or post-transplant medications), or have a condition that impairs immune function, your body may not be able to contain a viral infection to the upper respiratory tract. What starts as a cold can become a serious illness much more quickly.

Watch for
  • Any fever — even low-grade — as this is a more significant signal in immunocompromised patients
  • Symptoms that seem unusually severe or prolonged from the start
  • Any cough that develops into chest symptoms — shortness of breath, chest pain, or colored mucus
My Recommendation
If you are significantly immunocompromised, contact your provider at the first sign of a respiratory illness — don't wait for symptoms to worsen. Your care team may want to monitor you more closely or intervene earlier than would be appropriate for a healthy adult.
🧓
Older adults

The immune system becomes less responsive with age (immunosenescence) — slower to mount a response, slower to clear an infection, and more prone to collateral damage in the process.

🔍 The Evidence

Studies have found that approximately two-thirds of older adults who develop a cold experience lower respiratory symptoms, compared to a much smaller proportion in younger, healthy adults.

Watch for
  • Symptoms lasting significantly longer than 10 days without improvement
  • Any chest symptoms developing — cough producing colored mucus, shortness of breath, chest discomfort
  • Confusion or sudden changes in mental status, which can signal spreading infection
❤️
Heart disease, diabetes, and other chronic conditions

Acute viral illness places real physiological stress on the body — elevated heart rate, increased metabolic demand, inflammatory signaling throughout the body. For people with cardiovascular disease, this can strain a heart with limited reserve. For people with diabetes, the stress response can destabilize blood sugar control.

Watch for
  • Heart disease: chest pain, palpitations, or shortness of breath beyond what you'd expect from a cold
  • Diabetes: blood sugars running significantly higher than your usual range, or difficulty keeping fluids down
  • Both groups: any symptom that feels disproportionate to a typical cold

The most effective intervention: vaccination

Everything above applies once a cold or respiratory illness has started. But for high-risk patients, the most powerful tool available is vaccination — specifically against RSV and pneumococcal pneumonia.

RSV vaccination

🔍 The Evidence

A 2026 meta-analysis found RSV vaccines reduced RSV-related hospitalizations by 77% (OR 0.23, 95% CI 0.20–0.27) and emergency department visits by 77%. Effectiveness against critical illness was 81%. In immunocompromised adults, effectiveness was somewhat lower but remained substantial: a 70–73% reduction in RSV-associated hospitalization. The 2025 IDSA guidelines issued a strong recommendation for RSV vaccination in immunocompromised adults.

77%
Reduction in RSV hospitalization in older adults
81%
Effectiveness against critical illness
70–73%
Effectiveness in immunocompromised adults

Current ACIP recommendations: RSV vaccination for all adults ≥75, and adults 60–74 with chronic heart/lung disease, immunocompromising conditions, or nursing home residency. The 2026 GOLD guidelines extend this to adults ≥50 with chronic heart or lung disease.

Pneumococcal vaccination

🔍 The Evidence

The CAPITA trial demonstrated 75% efficacy against vaccine-type invasive pneumococcal disease and 45% efficacy against pneumococcal pneumonia in adults ≥65. Newer higher-valent vaccines (PCV20, PCV21) cover additional bacterial strains responsible for 30–84% of invasive disease not covered by the older PCV13.

Current recommendation: a single “one-and-done” dose of PCV20 or PCV21 is the preferred approach — broader coverage, one visit.

PopulationRecommendationStrength
Adults ≥65 yearsPCV20 or PCV21 (single dose)Strong
Adults 19–64 with immunocompromising conditionsPCV20, or PCV15 followed by PPSV23Strong
Adults 19–64 with chronic heart or lung diseasePCV20 or PCV21Strong
Previously vaccinated with PCV13 onlyPCV20 ≥1 year later, or PPSV23 ≥8 weeks laterModerate

RSV vaccination during pregnancy

RSV is the leading cause of hospitalization in infants under 6 months. Maternal RSV vaccination at 32–36 weeks gestation transfers protective antibodies to the baby before birth.

🔍 The Evidence

The MATISSE trial demonstrated 82% efficacy against severe RSV-associated lower respiratory tract infections in infants through 90 days of life. A 2024 Cochrane review found maternal RSV vaccination reduced infant RSV hospitalizations by 50% (RR 0.50, 95% CI 0.31–0.82) — 11 fewer hospitalizations per 1,000 infants. The most dramatic impact was in infants 0–2 months: a 56–63% reduction in RSV hospitalizations.

⚠ Maternal vaccination vs. nirsevimab
Nirsevimab is a monoclonal antibody given to newborns after birth, providing 65–76% reduction in RSV hospitalization. ACOG and CDC recommend either maternal vaccination or nirsevimab — not both for most healthy full-term infants. Discuss the choice with your obstetrician or pediatrician.
My Synthesis
If you fall into any high-risk group — COPD, asthma, heart disease, diabetes, weakened immune system, or older adult — the overall message is this: most colds won't be serious, but a lower threshold for reaching out to your provider is warranted. Early intervention is almost always easier than late intervention. And if your vaccines aren't up to date, now is the time.
Sources: Dykewicz MS et al. Rhinitis 2020: A Practice Parameter Update. JACI. 2020 · Payne SC et al. Clinical Practice Guideline: Adult Sinusitis Update. Otolaryngology–Head and Neck Surgery. 2025 · Albert RK et al. Azithromycin for prevention of exacerbations of COPD. NEJM. 2011 · Leuppi JD et al. Short-term vs conventional glucocorticoid therapy in acute exacerbations of COPD: the REDUCE trial. JAMA. 2013 · Kampmann B et al. MATISSE trial: maternal RSV vaccination. NEJM. 2023 · Drysdale SB et al. Maternal RSV vaccination Cochrane review. 2024 · ACIP RSV Vaccine Recommendations 2024 · Bonten MJM et al. CAPITA trial. NEJM. 2015.
More in this series
Part 01: What Is the Common Cold? · Part 02: High-Risk Situations (you are here) · Part 03: OTC Medications · Part 04: Nasal Irrigation · Part 05: When to See a Doctor
← Back to Health Resources